Yikes: The smartphone market is anticipated to undergo a fair deeper stoop because of the ongoing US-Iran battle, in response to analysis agency IDC.
IDC already predicted that international smartphone shipments would fall 12.9% this 12 months, citing the continuing AI-driven reminiscence scarcity. However on Tuesday, the corporate forecasted a fair worse decline of 13.9%, blaming the US-Iran warfare for additional sapping demand.
“The smartphone market is headed into its worst 12 months on report,” IDC mentioned in a analysis be aware, calling it “the steepest annual contraction in smartphone historical past,” assuming the projection holds.
(Credit score: IDC)
Rising gasoline and oil costs ensuing from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz imply smartphone distributors face larger prices, together with for the transportation of products and parts. “Mixed, these pressures are compelling distributors to scale back shipments, increase costs, and focus on larger value tiers—elevating smartphone ASP [average selling price] to a report $550, up $100 from final 12 months,” says IDC analysis director Nabila Popal. The $550 determine can also be up from the beforehand projected $523 ASP for this 12 months.
(Credit score: IDC)
In one other unhealthy signal, IDC initiatives smartphone shipments will fall subsequent 12 months too, amounting to a 1% year-over-year lower, fairly than beginning to get better, because it initially forecasted.
The excellent news is that customers in North America in all probability received’t see as a lot affect, since smartphone pricing is already excessive right here. As an alternative, rising markets, the place $200 telephones are extra widespread, will see essentially the most ache, IDC says. Within the Center East and Africa, smartphone shipments are projected to fall 23%
“For shoppers, it means the period of ultra-cheap smartphones is over,” Popal provides.
Nonetheless, IDC maintains that Apple and Samsung would possibly profit from the dire scenario by attracting clients normally served by smaller Android gamers. “A mix of secured reminiscence provide, a stronger Galaxy S26 line-up, and aggressive midrange positioning is permitting Samsung to seize demand that smaller Android distributors merely can’t function reminiscence prices squeeze their invoice of supplies,” IDC says.
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Michael Kan
Principal Reporter
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I have been a journalist for over 15 years. I received my begin as a colleges and cities reporter in Kansas Metropolis and joined PCMag in 2017, the place I cowl satellite tv for pc web companies, cybersecurity, PC {hardware}, and extra. I am presently based mostly in San Francisco, however beforehand spent over 5 years in China, protecting the nation’s know-how sector.
Since 2020, I’ve coated the launch and explosive development of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite tv for pc web service, writing 600+ tales on availability and have launches, but additionally the regulatory battles over the enlargement of satellite tv for pc constellations, fights with rival suppliers like AST SpaceMobile and Amazon, and the trouble to increase into satellite-based cell service. I’ve combed by FCC filings for the most recent information and pushed to distant corners of California to check Starlink’s mobile service.
I additionally cowl cyber threats, from ransomware gangs to the emergence of AI-based malware. In 2024 and 2025, the FTC pressured Avast to pay shoppers $16.5 million for secretly harvesting and promoting their private info to third-party shoppers, as revealed in my joint investigation with Motherboard.
I additionally cowl the PC graphics card market. Pandemic-era shortages led me to camp out in entrance of a Finest Purchase to get an RTX 3000. I am now following how the AI-driven reminiscence scarcity is impacting the complete shopper electronics market. I am all the time wanting to study extra, so please leap within the feedback with suggestions and ship me ideas.
