For those who’re making ready to purchase a telephone subsequent 12 months, begin saving now. The continued reminiscence scarcity means you may need to pay $70 extra for a brand new smartphone, in line with analysis agency IDC.
The reminiscence crunch has already despatched DDR5 RAM costs by the roof. However on Tuesday, IDC warned that the “the continuing world reminiscence scarcity is anticipated to constrain provide and lift costs” for smartphones into 2026.
IDC analyst Anthony Scarsella tells us that the worldwide common promoting value (ASP) for telephones reached $440 in Q3. “Subsequent quarter we venture they’ll attain $511,” he says, as tech giants hoard GPUs for his or her AI knowledge facilities.
For the total 12 months in 2026, IDC tasks the ASP will attain $465, up from $457 for 2025. Smartphone distributors would possibly attempt to offset the surge in reminiscence prices by trimming bills elsewhere. “The listing of elements that may be downgraded is in depth. Distributors might want to select the place to chop or elevate costs to maintain up with prices,” Scarsella says.
One other possible consequence is a shift towards higher-end gadgets, which supply higher margins and may take up the monetary hit from skyrocketing reminiscence costs. In consequence, IDC expects the reminiscence scarcity to influence “low-to-midrange Android gadgets extra considerably as they continue to be extra value delicate.”
On the brilliant facet, Scarsella notes that the US market already leans towards premium telephones, particularly iPhones, giving distributors “extra room within the margins” to climate the spike. That stated, many higher-end telephones now embrace AI-powered options, which require extra reminiscence.
The upper pricing is sure to harm world demand, with IDC projecting smartphone shipments to fall by 0.9% in 2026. However on the flip facet, IDC says the smartphone market may attain a “document excessive of $579 billion” when it comes to worth, if the upper pricing turns into a actuality.
“Subsequent 12 months will probably be a difficult time for the trade, nonetheless, IDC nonetheless believes the market may see document ASPs,” Scarsella provides.
IDC’s predictions echo earlier warnings from Counterpoint Analysis, which additionally flagged potential value hikes on telephones as a result of reminiscence scarcity. “We’re speaking right here about massive will increase to smartphone BoMs [bill of materials]—upwards of 15% within the case of some fashions —throughout the important thing mid-to-high-end segments, consuming into margins or affecting progress. It should in all probability be each,” Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam stated on the time.
AI demand reveals no indicators of letting up, so there’s rising concern the reminiscence scarcity will persist for years and hit all types of electronics, together with SSDs, graphics playing cards, PCs, and even vehicles.
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About Our Skilled
Michael Kan
Senior Reporter
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I have been a journalist for over 15 years. I received my begin as a faculties and cities reporter in Kansas Metropolis and joined PCMag in 2017, the place I cowl satellite tv for pc web providers, cybersecurity, PC {hardware}, and extra. I am at present based mostly in San Francisco, however beforehand spent over 5 years in China, protecting the nation’s expertise sector.
Since 2020, I’ve coated the launch and explosive progress of SpaceX’s Starlink satellite tv for pc web service, writing 600+ tales on availability and have launches, but in addition the regulatory battles over the growth of satellite tv for pc constellations, fights with rival suppliers like AST SpaceMobile and Amazon, and the hassle to increase into satellite-based cellular service. I’ve combed by FCC filings for the newest information and pushed to distant corners of California to check Starlink’s mobile service.
I additionally cowl cyber threats, from ransomware gangs to the emergence of AI-based malware. Earlier this 12 months, the FTC pressured Avast to pay customers $16.5 million for secretly harvesting and promoting their private info to third-party purchasers, as revealed in my joint investigation with Motherboard.
I additionally cowl the PC graphics card market. Pandemic-era shortages led me to camp out in entrance of a Finest Purchase to get an RTX 3000. I am now following how President Trump’s tariffs will have an effect on the trade. I am at all times desperate to study extra, so please soar within the feedback with suggestions and ship me ideas.
