Intel did fairly properly this final quarter however two issues they stated within the final quarterly name caught out to SemiAccurate. One was technical the opposite enterprise, so lets have a look.
The very first thing that SemiAccurate thought was attention-grabbing was when Intel was speaking about their AI gross sales and probabilities. At about 12m into the Q3/2025 earnings name, Intel principally threw within the towel on AI coaching gross sales. Probably the most specific inform was the commentary once they stated their AI silicon was optimized for inference plus bodily and agentic AI relatively than coaching. Moreover the GPUs are additionally being optimized for inference so… anticipate the pushback spin however don’t purchase it.
The actual demise knell for Intel’s AI coaching ambitions was earlier within the name when Lip-Bu was speaking in regards to the tie up with Nvidia, particularly using Nvlink. Any firm who indicators up for that is toast. That’s each a technical assertion and behavioral based mostly on 20+ years of watching Nvidia carefully. With out going an excessive amount of in to element, signing up for Nvlink permits Nvidia to tug the rug out from any ‘companion’ as quickly because the market they spend the effort and time to develop turns into value it for Nvidia to play in. Intel did it to them, paradoxically not deliberately, through the Sandy Bridge transition, and Nvidia has finished it to many others since.
You may say a number of issues about Nvidia, however they study. Intel is out of the AI market so long as Nvidia is dominant, they usually misplaced any probability at margins with Nvlink too. Any Xeon with Nvlink has one buyer, and a buyer with different choices too. Good luck with that Intel. There are extra technical the reason why that is horrendously unhealthy deal for Intel however they’re a bit extra nuanced. Suffice it to say it doesn’t get any higher from right here.
Extra importantly than that was the bit about tight provide environments about 27m into the decision That is actual and like Intel stated, will persist into subsequent yr, a boon for all chip suppliers. Beginning about 6-8 weeks in the past, a rumor began going round excessive ranges of the business about provide constraints. The finger was pointed at Intel, 18a, silly SKU mixes, and crap yields being the trigger. None of that is true however SemiAccurate heard it from a number of sources within the x86 world and a number of other OEMs too.
Because it wasn’t true and plenty of excessive degree sources had been speaking about it, what was truly occurring, and the place did this story come from? That’s the place it will get attention-grabbing, and all of it begins right here.
Be aware: The next is for skilled and scholar degree subscribers.
Disclosures: Charlie Demerjian and Stone Arch Networking Providers, Inc. don’t have any consulting relationships, funding relationships, or maintain any funding positions with any of the businesses talked about on this report.
