{"id":27915,"date":"2026-06-03T19:16:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:16:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915"},"modified":"2026-06-03T19:16:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:16:13","slug":"elon-musk-laid-out-602-objectives-we-counted-how-many-he-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk Laid Out 602 Objectives. We Counted How Many He Hit."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div id=\"02biz-musk-promises\"><!--[--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Elon Musk has laid out hundreds of goals over the years for what he plans to achieve at his businesses.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk, 54, has said his rocket company, SpaceX, will build a colony of humans on Mars. He has said that Tesla, his electric carmaker, will incorporate fully autonomous driving abilities into all of its cars. And he has promised to show that humanoid robots made by Tesla are dexterous enough to thread a needle.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->None of these have happened.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Ahead of SpaceX\u2019s planned <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/01\/technology\/spacex-ipo-elon-musk.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">initial public offering this month<\/a>, The New York Times analyzed statements that Mr. Musk has made about his businesses on social media or during investor calls over the last 15 years. He delivered only some of what he said he would, when he said he would, the analysis found.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!----><\/p>\n<figure class=\"g-wrapper  svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block\" style=\"--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance\"><!--[0--><\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[0--><\/p>\n<p><!--[0--><\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_53 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\" role=\"button\"><label for=\"item-6a205fcb53822\" ><span class=\"\"><span style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input aria-label=\"Toggle\" aria-label=\"item-6a205fcb53822\"  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-6a205fcb53822\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3'><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#Of_more_than_600_claims_Mr_Musk_has_made_%E2%80%A6\" title=\"Of more than 600 claims Mr. Musk has made \u2026\">Of more than 600 claims Mr. Musk has made \u2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#How_often_Mr_Musk_hit_his_goals_over_time\" title=\"How often Mr. Musk hit his goals over time\">How often Mr. Musk hit his goals over time<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#No_Driver_Needed\" title=\"No Driver Needed\">No Driver Needed<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3'><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#Here_are_Mr_Musk%E2%80%99s_self-driving_goals\" title=\"Here are Mr. Musk\u2019s self-driving goals\">Here are Mr. Musk\u2019s self-driving goals<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#Destination_Mars\" title=\"Destination Mars\">Destination Mars<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3'><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/?p=27915\/#Methodology\" title=\"Methodology\">Methodology<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"g-heading svelte-ork8ht\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Of_more_than_600_claims_Mr_Musk_has_made_%E2%80%A6\"><\/span><!---->Of more than 600 claims Mr. Musk has made \u2026<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz\"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible\"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><\/p>\n<div class=\"waffle-static svelte-12fj47b\" aria-label=\"Waffle chart of promise outcomes\">\n<section class=\"block-section svelte-pxzztz\" aria-label=\"All promises by outcome\">\n<div class=\"waffle-chart svelte-pxzztz\">\n<div class=\"waffle-layout svelte-pxzztz\">\n<ul class=\"section-annotations svelte-pxzztz\" aria-label=\"Outcome sections\" style=\"min-height: 516px;\"><!--[--><\/p>\n<li class=\"section-annotation svelte-pxzztz\" style=\"top: 0px;\">\n<p><!---->He <span class=\"label-highlight label-achieved\">achieved<\/span> what he said he would only about <strong>19 percent<\/strong> of the time.<!----><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"section-annotation svelte-pxzztz\" style=\"top: 88px;\">\n<p><!---->He was <span class=\"label-highlight label-late\">late<\/span> \u2014 sometimes by years \u2014 or <span class=\"label-highlight label-not-achieved\">did not deliver<\/span> on his goals about <strong>35 percent<\/strong> of the time.<!----><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"section-annotation svelte-pxzztz\" style=\"top: 275px;\">\n<p><!---->For about <strong>33 percent<\/strong> of Mr. Musk\u2019s plans, he or his companies did not provide a public update or they were <span class=\"label-highlight label-unclear\">too vague<\/span> to know if he succeeded.<!----><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li class=\"section-annotation svelte-pxzztz\" style=\"top: 451px;\">\n<p><!---->About <strong>13 percent<\/strong> of Mr. Musk\u2019s goals came with delivery dates that are <span class=\"label-highlight label-future-date\">still in the future<\/span>.<!----><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<p><!--]--><\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p><!----><\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!----> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!----><\/figure>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Strikingly, Mr. Musk\u2019s annual rate of success declined over time, even as he made more promises. Of the 13 goals he declared in 2015, he later achieved nearly three-quarters of them, The Times found. But of the 27 claims he made in 2020, fewer than half have been accomplished on time. Some still have deadlines far in the future.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!----><\/p>\n<figure class=\"g-wrapper  svelte-nnmo52\" style=\"--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance\"><!--[0--><\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[0--><\/p>\n<p><!--[0--><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"g-heading svelte-ork8ht\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_often_Mr_Musk_hit_his_goals_over_time\"><\/span><!---->How often Mr. Musk hit his goals over time<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz\"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible\"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><\/p>\n<div class=\"stacked-bar-by-year svelte-1hbdd34\" aria-label=\"Stacked charts of promise outcomes by year\">\n<section class=\"stack-section svelte-1hbdd34\" aria-label=\"Stacked column chart by year\">\n<div class=\"stack-chart svelte-1hbdd34\">\n<ul class=\"stack-legend svelte-1hbdd34\" aria-label=\"Chart legend and outcome counts\"><!--[--><\/p>\n<li class=\"legend-item svelte-1hbdd34\"><span class=\"legend-swatch svelte-1hbdd34\" style=\"background-color: var(--g-color-mint-3);\"\/> <span class=\"legend-label svelte-1hbdd34\">Achieved on time<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"legend-item svelte-1hbdd34\"><span class=\"legend-swatch svelte-1hbdd34\" style=\"background-color: var(--g-color-apricot-4);\"\/> <span class=\"legend-label svelte-1hbdd34\">Achieved late<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"legend-item svelte-1hbdd34\"><span class=\"legend-swatch svelte-1hbdd34\" style=\"background-color: var(--g-color-brick-4);\"\/> <span class=\"legend-label svelte-1hbdd34\">Did not achieve<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"legend-item svelte-1hbdd34\"><span class=\"legend-swatch svelte-1hbdd34 future-date\" style=\"background-color: var(--g-color-slate-3, #e1e9ed);\"\/> <span class=\"legend-label svelte-1hbdd34\">Future date<\/span><\/li>\n<li class=\"legend-item svelte-1hbdd34\"><span class=\"legend-swatch svelte-1hbdd34\" style=\"background-color: var(--g-color-khaki-2);\"\/> <span class=\"legend-label svelte-1hbdd34\">Unclear<\/span><\/li>\n<p><!--]--><\/ul>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!----> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!----><\/figure>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk\u2019s ability to follow through on what he says is increasingly in the spotlight with SpaceX\u2019s I.P.O., which is set to be one of the largest offerings ever. The billionaire has major ambitions for the company, which operates rocket launches and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2023\/07\/28\/business\/starlink.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Starlink satellite internet service<\/a>, as well as artificial intelligence efforts and the social media platform X.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/20\/technology\/elon-musk-spacex-ipo.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">owns 50 percent of SpaceX<\/a> and controls more than 85 percent of the shareholder votes, according to its prospectus. His grip on the company is tight, and the performance of SpaceX, which has valued itself at $1.25 trillion, hinges on whether he does what he says he will, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/01\/01\/technology\/space-data-centers-ai.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">putting A.I. data centers into orbit<\/a>.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->About 150 of Mr. Musk\u2019s goals over the years were about SpaceX, The Times found. Of those, about 32 percent were achieved within one year of their stated goal, while 19 percent were more than a year late or remained unfulfilled. Half of the goals could not be verified because the plans were too vague or the date was too far out.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Many chief executives overpromise and underdeliver. But Mr. Musk is a singular figure in the business world, and what he says carries extra weight. Investors typically bet on him specifically, based on his record of disrupting industries such as cars and rockets. At Tesla, where Mr. Musk serves as chief executive and owns about 20 percent of shares, the company\u2019s $1.3 trillion market capitalization relies largely on his future plans, according to analyst estimates.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->\u201cThe market is trading and selling on what he is saying,\u201d Sky Moore, a corporate lawyer who has reviewed Tesla\u2019s financial filings, said of Mr. Musk.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->The Times analyzed more than 69,000 of Mr. Musk\u2019s social media posts from 2011 through this January, as well as his public comments on 19 Tesla investor calls since 2021, when transcripts became available. The Times compiled what Mr. Musk said about Tesla, which is publicly traded, and his five private companies, SpaceX, Neuralink, X, xAI and the Boring Company, though SpaceX recently absorbed X and xAI.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->From those, The Times tallied any public statement that Mr. Musk made in which he committed to a future deadline about his businesses. The analysis did not include comments on podcasts, in media interviews and at other events.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk has gotten into trouble several times for making public statements about Tesla and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/20\/technology\/elon-musk-twitter-shareholders-verdict.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">X<\/a>, formerly known as Twitter, that did not pan out. Public companies are prohibited by law from misrepresenting or omitting information to investors, which could amount to securities fraud.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->The highest-profile instance was in 2018 when Mr. Musk said he had secured funding to take Tesla private at $420 a share, though he had not lined up the financing for such a deal. He did not end up taking Tesla private.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->That same year, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Mr. Musk with securities fraud and accused him of misleading investors. Mr. Musk and Tesla <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/09\/30\/business\/elon-musk-tesla-whats-next.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">soon settled<\/a> with the regulator for $40 million without admitting or denying wrongdoing. Mr. Musk also stepped down as Tesla\u2019s chairman, and the board agreed to review his communications.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->In 2023, Mr. Musk <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/02\/03\/business\/elon-musk-tesla-investor-trial.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">separately prevailed<\/a> against a lawsuit aiming to hold him responsible for investor losses related to his comments that he had secured the funding to take Tesla private.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Many people have tolerated Mr. Musk\u2019s behavior because he has enriched investors with his successes at companies like Tesla. They see his statements as a sign of ambition and his way of motivating employees.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->\u201cHe does set these really ambitious goals, because in his words, he wants quantum change, and you don\u2019t get quantum change asking for incremental growth,\u201d said Jon McNeill, Tesla\u2019s president between 2015 and 2018.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk and representatives for SpaceX and Tesla did not return requests for comment.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><h2 class=\"g-subhed g-heading2block svelte-17u6t01\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"No_Driver_Needed\"><\/span><!---->No Driver Needed<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk has talked most frequently about how Tesla will achieve \u201cfull self-driving,\u201d the company\u2019s program for vehicles that can drive themselves without human intervention. Reaching this is important to Tesla\u2019s status as the world\u2019s most valuable car company, especially as its car sales have declined since 2023.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Over 60 of Mr. Musk\u2019s more than 600 goals were related to the autonomous driving technology, which includes Tesla\u2019s robotaxi program. The billionaire first promised the technology in 2016, according to The Times\u2019s analysis.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[1--><!----><\/p>\n<figure class=\"g-wrapper  svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block\" style=\"--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance\"><!--[0--><\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-body svelte-ki8lyz\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--[0--><\/p>\n<p><!--[0--><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"g-heading svelte-ork8ht\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Here_are_Mr_Musk%E2%80%99s_self-driving_goals\"><\/span><!---->Here are Mr. Musk\u2019s self-driving goals<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--><\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-block g-block-margin svelte-ki8lyz g-margin-inline\">\n<div class=\"g-block-width g-max-width-650px svelte-ki8lyz\" style=\"max-width: 650px;\"><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main-content svelte-nnmo52 g-overflow-visible\"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <\/p>\n<div class=\"g-wrapper_main_content_slot svelte-nnmo52\"><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><\/p>\n<div class=\"fsd-flow svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[0--><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2016<\/span> <!--[--><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->Tesla expects to demonstrate self-driven cross-country trip <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">next year<\/mark><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/19\/2016<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2017<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Autonomy capability should improve via OTA every 2 to 6 weeks<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">1\/22\/2017<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2018<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->That issue is better in latest Autopilot software rolling out now fully fixed in August update as part of our long-awaited Tesla Version 9. To date, Autopilot resources have rightly focused entirely on safety. With V9, we will begin to enable full self-driving features.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/10\/2018<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Probably 4 to 6 months. Those who order full self-driving get the upgrade at no cost. It isn\u2019t needed just for enhanced Autopilot.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/8\/2018<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->~6 months before it is in all new production cars. No change to sensors. This is simple replacement of the Autopilot computer. Will be done free of charge for those who ordered full self-driving.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/16\/2018<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2019<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Going through final validation &amp; regulatory approval. Probably releases to early access program owners in a few weeks. It\u2019s trippy!<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">1\/9\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Tesla will start FSD computer upgrade in a few months<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/13\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Exactly. By end of this quarter, about half a million Teslas will have full self-driving hardware (pending computer swap) &amp; we will make another half million FSD cars by mid next year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/23\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->We will delay $1k full self-driving option price increase until May 10 for those unable to order by May 1<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/25\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->We could have gamed an LA\/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/9\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->This is why it\u2019s possible for Tesla to have a million robotaxis <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">by end of 2020<\/mark> if we upgrade existing HW2 fleet of ~500k &amp; make at least ~500k FSD cars<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">7\/7\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Cost of Tesla full self-driving option increasing by ~$1000 on August 16<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">7\/16\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Price increase for Tesla FSD postponed until version 10 with smart summon is in wide release, which is about 4 to 8 weeks away, depending on how early access goes<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/20\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Now that Tesla V10.0 with Smart Summon is out, Full Self-Driving price will increase by $1000 on Nov 1<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/11\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Working with engineering team to figure out best way to do upgrade without crushing service team. Will start doing upgrades in volume in a few months, coincident with more FSD features being released.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/11\/2019<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2020<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Cool, we\u2019re tracking to release more FSD features later this month<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">3\/4\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->Functionality still looking good for <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">this year<\/mark>. Regulatory approval is the big unknown.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/11\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->We\u2019re working super hard on getting traffic lights &amp; stops released. Reverse summon (auto park) will be part of the core Autopilot software upgrade for FSD later this year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/15\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Tesla Full Self-Driving option cost rises by ~$1000 worldwide on July 1st. Order a Tesla online in less than 2 minutes at https:\/\/t.co\/qJm9uPBCX5<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/18\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->The FSD improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it\u2019s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive the bleeding edge alpha build in my car personally. Almost at zero interventions between home &amp; work. Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/14\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Meant to say that it should be fixed in the latest wide release. Won\u2019t need to wait for FSD.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/8\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Price change is pushed to Thursday next week. Applies only to US for now. One week clock will start in other countries as beta is released. FSD monthly rental will also be available sometime next year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/22\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Absolutely. We will release FSD subscription early next year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">12\/20\/2020<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2021<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">this year<\/mark>, of that I am confident. Can\u2019t speak for regulators though.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">1\/1\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->FSD Beta has now been expanded to ~2000 owners &amp;amp; we\u2019ve also revoked beta where drivers did not pay sufficient attention to the road. No accidents to date.  Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision \u2014 not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">3\/12\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/14\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->I think we\u2019re maybe a month or two away from wide beta. But these things are hard to predict accurately.   The work we had to do for pure vision driving was needed for FSD, so much more progress has been made than it would seem.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/12\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Top Safety Pick+ from IIHS! That\u2019s the highest overall rating, but we think we can get max score for all subcategories\/individual tests too.   Retesting in a month or so with improved software. The improved software will then be uploaded to all cars with FSD computers.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/29\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Highway stack is still production version, as it is more polished than FSD for now. Single stack for all should release in 10.1.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">9\/11\/2021<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2022<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Monthly subscription price will rise when FSD goes to wide release<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">1\/7\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->FSD Beta should be available in Europe for LHD this summer, RHD a few months later. These dates depend on regulatory approval.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">3\/29\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->No, I meant wide release to high safety score beta participants. Going to all beta participants is expected later this year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">4\/29\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->It still needs more work imo, but we can probably widen the beta a little <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">next month<\/mark><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/13\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->Also, FSD Beta 10.12.2 now expanding to 100k cars.   10.13 smooths out intersection control, especially long lefts, and starts to handle roads with no map data at all.   Last point is a big deal. <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">Within a few months<\/mark>, FSD should be able to drive to a GPS point with zero map data.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/4\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->FSD Beta 10.69 drops on 8\/20<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/7\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->After wide release of FSD Beta 10.69.2, price of FSD will rise to $15k in North America on September 5th.   Current price will be honored for orders made before Sept 5th, but delivered later.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/21\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->2 main goals this year:   &#8211; Starship to orbit &#8211; FSD wide release  Many other things, of course, but those are the 2 giant kahunas. Will require insane work by many super talented people, but, if anyone can do it, they can.   It is an honor to work with such awesome human beings.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/21\/2022<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2023<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->As mentioned earlier, v11.4.1 has major architectural improvements. It\u2019s actually much more than a point release. Should arguably be v12.0, but that\u2019s reserved for when FSD is fully AI from video in to control out.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/10\/2023<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->HW4 software will lag HW3 by at least another six months, as our focus needs to be on getting FSD on HW3 working super well and provided internationally.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/27\/2023<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2024<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->We have been short on training compute for FSD, so haven\u2019t trained with other video, but certainly could. Will do it later this year when we have some spare capacity.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">2\/17\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->Three significant improvements to FSD will roll out roughly every two weeks. Should be really shining bright <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">by late April or early May<\/mark>.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">3\/18\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->We must focus on FSD for the other 0.99 of the fleet. Cybertruck FSD is a few months away.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/9\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Yeah, seeing it everywhere.  Btw, 12.4 goes to internal release this weekend and limited external beta next week. Roughly 5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention vs 12.3. 12.5 will be out in late June. Will also see a major improvement in mpi and is single stack \u2013 no more implicit stack on highways.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/15\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->FSD 12.4.1 releases today to Tesla employees. If that goes well, then it will be released to a limited number of external customers this weekend.  There are a massive number of changes to this build. It should arguably be called v13, but we\u2019re sticking to 12 \ud83d\ude02 Two other versions are in earlier stages of testing: 12.5 and 12.6, which could be called v14 and v15. We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/5\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->And all transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">10\/10\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Not Teslas, once unsupervised FSD starts to happen next year<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">12\/11\/2024<\/span><\/span><!--[0--><span class=\"year-label svelte-1ingoii\">2025<\/span><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->As I\u2019ve said previously, unsupervised full self-driving Teslas will be carrying passengers in Austin <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">in June<\/mark> and many cities in America by end of year.   This will enable passenger cars to increase in utility by roughly half an order of magnitude overnight with a software update. https:\/\/t.co\/ADgZNQzmRz<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">3\/31\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Robot cars (aka FSD) should have a noticeable effect in 1 to 2 years<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/23\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver\u2019s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents.   A month ahead of schedule.  Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">5\/28\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->@WholeMarsBlog @StuartZuckerma1 ~4.5X increase in params should be ready for wide release later this year.  Super frugal use of memory bandwidth, caching exactly what is needed &amp; squeezing microseconds out of everything are needed to maintain the frame rate.  And the whole system needs to be retrained.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/10\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->@farzyness As soon as we feel it is safe to do so.   Probably within a month or two. We continue to improve the Tesla AI with each mile driven.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">6\/30\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Tesla is training a new FSD model with ~10X params and a big improvement to video compression loss.  Probably ready for public release end of next month if testing goes well.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/6\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Minimizing probability of injury is the goal, but we will address these other factors too. If not entirely in this build, then shortly thereafter.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/6\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->Tesla already does that for self-driving!  For real-time video generation with interaction like a good video game, I\u2019d say next year.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/7\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->The FSD software update next month will be a major step-change improvement for rare conditions<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/7\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->This will substantially reduce the need for driver attention, but some complex intersections, heavy weather or unusual events will still require attention.   Note, the Austin robotaxi FSD build is ~6 months more advanced than what is available in cars in America and there are<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/8\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->The FSD release in about 6 weeks will be a dramatic gain with a 10X higher parameter count and many other improvements. It\u2019s going through training &amp;amp; testing now.   Once we confirm real-world safety of FSD 14, which we think will be amazing, the car will nag you much less.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/10\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->It will be open access next month<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/10\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->There are so many rare situations irl that even V14, while capable of being much safer than the average human driver, will take a few months to debug post release<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">8\/24\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii is-spotlight\"><!--[0-->The safety driver is just there for the first few months to be extra safe.  Should be no safety driver by <mark class=\"date-highlight svelte-1ingoii\">end of year<\/mark>.<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">9\/4\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--[-1--><!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-text svelte-1ingoii\"><!--[-1-->The Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin should roughly double next month<!--]--> <span class=\"tweet-date svelte-1ingoii\">11\/25\/2025<\/span><\/span><!--]--><\/p>\n<p><!--]--> <!--[--><!--]--><\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!--]--><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!----> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!----><\/figure>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Tesla has inched closer toward full self-driving. This year, it offered fully autonomous rides with no human safety monitors in the Texas cities of Austin, Dallas and Houston.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->But the company lags other autonomous car providers. Waymo, a subsidiary of Alphabet, which owns Google, offers driverless rides in 11 U.S. cities, including Los Angeles, Miami and Phoenix.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->In April, J.P. Morgan analysts said Tesla faced dwindling confidence in its \u201cability to achieve lofty out-year objectives.\u201d Its stock has fallen 14 percent since December, when it hit a record high.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk recently voiced a rare mea culpa. Teslas with older computer systems, known as Hardware 3, could not run software allowing them to drive autonomously, he acknowledged. In 2023, he had <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1695683422667317304\">promised<\/a> that those cars would have that ability.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->\u201cI wish it were otherwise,\u201d he said in an investor call in April.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><h2 class=\"g-subhed g-heading2block svelte-17u6t01\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Destination_Mars\"><\/span><!---->Destination Mars<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Of all the goals Mr. Musk has laid out, perhaps the most eye-catching have been about how SpaceX will reach and colonize Mars.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Mr. Musk founded his space company in 2002 with that plan in mind, saying he wanted to make human life \u201cmultiplanetary.\u201d<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->He has made goals related to Mars 19 times, according to The Times\u2019s analysis. But in his comments, Mr. Musk\u2019s timeline for getting to the Red Planet changed or included deadlines that are still in the future.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->In 2011, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/BL-VCDB-10984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he said<\/a> that SpaceX would reach Mars in about 10 years or \u201cworst case 15 to 20 years.\u201d He appeared undaunted that Mars is about 140 million miles from Earth, with an inhospitable climate and terrain. Mr. Musk decorated SpaceX\u2019s then-headquarters in Hawthorne, Calif., with pictures and maps of Mars, and one of his homes with similar renderings. SpaceX employees, including Mr. Musk, became known for wearing \u201cOccupy Mars\u201d T-shirts.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><!--[-1--><\/p>\n<div class=\"tweet svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<div class=\"tweet__inner svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<p class=\"tweet__text svelte-17ppsrj\">I think we will see people on Mars in less than 20 years. 12 to 15 years most likely. #OccupyMars<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Over the last decade, Mr. Musk made progress toward getting to Mars. In 2016, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/04\/20\/science\/elon-musk-starship-launch-timeline.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he talked about plans<\/a> for a \u201cMars Colonial Transporter,\u201d a spaceship that would ferry humans to the planet. SpaceX built the rocket, which was eventually called Starship and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/03\/14\/science\/what-is-starship-spacex-rocket.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">is larger<\/a> than the Statue of Liberty. Other plans for Starship included space where humans could live for months at a time.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><!--[-1--><\/p>\n<div class=\"tweet svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<div class=\"tweet__inner svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<p class=\"tweet__text svelte-17ppsrj\">@LadoBitnar I am highly confident that we can send several uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2 years. If those ships don\u2019t increment the crater count on Mars, then crewed ships can be sent in 4 years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->But many of Mr. Musk\u2019s deadlines for reaching Mars keep shifting, which became particularly noticeable in recent years. In March 2024, he said Starship would arrive on Mars \u201cwithin five years.\u201d A year later, he said the spaceship would depart for Mars \u201cat the end of next year.\u201d<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->NASA has said that the best-case scenario would be that humans reach <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/26\/opinion\/space-nasa-elon-musk.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mars in the mid-2030s.<\/a><!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->In April 2024, Mr. Musk told SpaceX employees that he expected one million people to be living on Mars in about 20 years. He had quietly directed employees <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/07\/11\/technology\/elon-musk-spacex-mars.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to begin working on plans for a city<\/a> there.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!--[--><!--[-1--><\/p>\n<div class=\"tweet svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<div class=\"tweet__inner svelte-17ppsrj\">\n<p class=\"tweet__text svelte-17ppsrj\">Starship departs for Mars at the end of next year, carrying Optimus. If those landings go well, then human landings may start as soon as 2029, although 2031 is more likely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->Yet in February, Mr. Musk revised his thinking again, saying that creating a Martian city would take \u201c20+ years.\u201d Instead, he said, SpaceX would colonize the moon.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->While SpaceX has a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/04\/16\/science\/spacex-moon-nasa.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">contract with NASA<\/a> to reach the moon, Mr. Musk had not previously aimed to build a colony there, said Robert Zubrin, an aerospace engineer and a former friend of Mr. Musk\u2019s who has informally advised him on Mars, as well as other people close to the tech mogul.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->\u201cHe has become, in recent years, not too careful about how close his remarks are to the truth,\u201d Mr. Zubrin said.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!----><\/p>\n<figure class=\"g-wrapper  svelte-nnmo52 g-needs-margin-block\" style=\"--g-wrapper_hed-text-wrap:balance\"><!--[-1--><!--]--> <!--[-1--><!--]--> <!----> <!--[-1--><!--]--><!----><\/figure>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><\/p>\n<p><h3 class=\"g-heading3 g-heading3block svelte-ksdzwt\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Methodology\"><\/span><!---->Methodology<!----><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/p>\n<p><!--]--><!--]--><!--[0--><!--[--><!--[--><!--[-1--><!----><\/p>\n<p class=\"g-text g-body-text g-detailblock svelte-kxgec5 g-text_last\"><!--[0--><!---->The Times analyzed Elon Musk\u2019s posts, replies and quotes on X between December 2011 and January 2026, along with transcripts of Tesla earnings calls from December 2021 to January 2026. The Times used a large language model to detect \u201cpromises,\u201d which were defined as concrete commitments to achieve a future goal. Reporters manually verified, researched and categorized the flagged statements, plus a sample of those the model rejected, to build a final dataset for analysis.<!----><!--]--><!----><\/p>\n<p><!----><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!--]--><!----><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elon Musk has laid out hundreds of goals over the years for what he plans to achieve at his businesses. Mr. Musk, 54, has said his rocket company, SpaceX, will build a colony of humans on Mars. He has said that Tesla, his electric carmaker, will incorporate fully autonomous driving abilities into all of its [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":27917,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27915","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-tech-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27915","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27915"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27915\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27916,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27915\/revisions\/27916"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27915"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27915"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/aireviewirush.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27915"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}